SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0672 FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

SEVERE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO FORM ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL OK ALONG
A LINE FROM END TO OKC TO FSI IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THUS A
WW MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY.

18Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH
SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG ALONG AND JUST WEST A LINE FROM
SOUTH OF ICT TO WEST OF OKC TO JUST EAST OF FSI. SURFACE
ANALYSIS/OK MESONET ALSO INDICATES THAT THIS IS JUST WEST OF A
CONFLUENCE ZONE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 18Z OUN SOUNDING INDICATES LITTLE
TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS. ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS CONFLUENCE ZONE SHOULD HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION IN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL
VORT MAX OVER THE TX PANHANDLE/NM BORDER. AS THIS FEATURE PROGRESS
EWD...EXPECT ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
GIVEN DEGREE OF STRONG 0-2KM SHEAR PRESENT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/CONFLUENCE ZONE...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES APPEARS
TO EXIST...ESPECIALLY WITH ANTICIPATED STORM MOTIONS WHICH PARALLEL
THE CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS SCENTRAL OK.

..CROSBIE.. 05/06/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...