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The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), the federal program developed to increase the volume of renewable fuel such as ethanol in transportation fuels, has generated mixed reactions across the nation. Since 2005, a popular claim says the RFS has resulted in more corn production and agricultural land use change, which ethanol opponents see as harmful to the environment. However, according to a new study led by Southern Illinois University Edwardsville alumna Krista Russell, who earned a master’s in environmental science from the College of Arts and Sciences (CAS) in 2020, this view is incomplete and simplistic.

The RFS has led to 10 percent ethanol being blended into fuel at the gas pumps. Ethanol itself is commonly created from corn and burns cleaner than petroleum products. As a graduate student at SIUE, Russell—who currently works in Bayer Crop Science’s Digital Farming Solutions division—investigated claims about the drive for ethanol by looking at various variables that influence a farmer’s decision making when determining what crop to plant in their fields. 

“My research concluded that multiple variables, independent of the RFS, impacted agricultural land use change,” said Russell. “This study looked at data over 11 growing seasons, on a county level, in the top corn-producing states of Illinois, Iowa and Nebraska. I tested three categories of independent variables. The first category focused on weather, where I tested if crop development progress and precipitation during planting and harvest had an impact on cropping decisions. The second category was focused on land enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), to determine if enrollment in the CRP was related to land use changes. The third category was commodity price, to see how current crop prices impacted agricultural land use decisions.”

Collaborating with her supervisor Nicholas Guehlstorf, PhD, professor and chair in the Department of Environmental Sciences, Russell found that the RFS cannot be solely responsible for agricultural land use change. Excessive precipitation during planting and harvest, along with commodity prices, were shown to have the biggest impact on agricultural land use changes. The result is that there is sufficient evidence that agriculture land use changes are part of a more complex agricultural system and that the claim that the RFS is solely responsible for intensified corn production and agricultural land use changes is incomplete.

“Agriculture is a complex natural system, where we should not create direct, simplified conclusions about what is causing land use change,” said Russell.

Russell is proud that having results of her research published furnishes the scientific community and the public with valuable insights into modern agricultural practices as a complex system, where farmers must make decisions using many different skillsets related to science, the economy, and business management, among others.

“I am incredibly grateful to everyone who has helped support this research,” Russell said. “There were many challenges that occurred along the way to get to this point, and I was very fortunate to have a great team supporting me every step of this process.”

“Krista’s work shows that cropping decisions made by farmers are complex and multiple variables are considered when deciding what to plant,” said Guehlstorf, commenting on Russell’s research. “Her work is important because it gives policy makers objective, science-based information to consider when developing the future of the RFS program.”

Russell previously wanted to be a high school agriculture teacher, so she pursued her bachelor’s degree in agricultural systems and education at Southern Illinois University Carbondale. During an internship at the National Corn-to-Ethanol Research Center (NCERC) at SIUE, her dreams grew bigger, realizing the need to be innovative to determine solutions that are practical for farmers to take more sustainable approaches to protect the environment. She undertook the graduate degree in environmental science to complement her training in agriculture.

“SIUE provided me with many opportunities beyond the classroom,” she said. “I had the opportunity to travel to Puerto Rico in January of 2020 to present an earlier version of this research at a conference. Being able to travel to a new place and present my research was a major highlight of my time at SIUE. Also, through external scholarships, I had the opportunity to attend the National Ethanol Conference and the Commodity Classic as an SIUE student, which gave me beneficial industry experience that has been valuable in my career.”

Her SIUE education and training set her up for her current career as part of the Climate FieldView team.

“Climate FieldView is a digital agriculture tool that allows farmers to visualize what is happening on their farms through an app,” said Russell.

Russell is also currently enrolled in the MBA in management program at SIUE. With a diversified skill set, she looks to an exciting career journey ahead.

Photo: Krista Russell, SIUE alumna.