SIUE Political Science Experts Analyze Voter Turnout and the Election
While the nation awaits final results following Tuesday’s presidential election, political analysts are crunching numbers and making predictions and scholarly experts are reflecting on high voter turnout, real-time results and implications for the future of American politics.
Southern Illinois University Edwardsville political science professors Laurie Rice, PhD, and Ken Moffett, PhD, are among the experts sharing insight and engaging students in coursework relevant to this election cycle.
“I have been fascinated by presidential elections since I was a young child,” said Rice. “It made logical sense to continue to study elections over the course of my life. At SIUE, I teach courses in voting and elections, media and politics, presidency and public opinion—all sorts of courses that are highly relevant right now.”
“Every week in my voting and elections course, we’ve been following the polls and watching the latest developments,” she added. “We’ve had students engaged in projects where they’re focused on increasing voter turnout, promoting non-partisan voter education and other initiatives related to the electoral process.”
As Rice awaits final results with the rest of the country, she offered her educated outlook on the major factors in the 2020 presidential election.
“There’s so much misinformation out there, and so much confusion,” Rice explained. “It’s important that individuals decipher all of these different pieces of information and employ critical thinking, something that we encourage heavily at SIUE.”
“Of course, one difference in this election is that it’s happening amid a pandemic,” she added. “Our lives have already been complicated in a lot of ways that we didn’t anticipate. Candidates had to figure out how to campaign safely, how to get their messages out, and wondered if people would get out and vote. We saw election laws vary dramatically state by state in terms of how easy it was to vote absentee, by mail or in person.”
As for the lengthy wait to learn who the next president will be, Rice says that’s nothing new. Unless there’s a clear frontrunner, the process of counting votes takes time.
“It’s only if the election is a blowout that we have a clear picture early on during election night of who is going to win,” Rice noted. “This idea of figuring out who’s going to win on election night is a modern phenomenon. It’s something that emerged as television networks began to come on the air and as prediction models have been developed.
“Networks want to be the first to call the race. But, it takes time. This year, we had more mail-in ballots because of the pandemic. And, in some states, the law actually says those votes cannot begin to be counted until polls close or until the day after the election. That is going to prolong the process.”
Moffett is currently teaching a course on Congress, a fitting topic given the election cycle.
“On Monday, students had a paper due in which they had to study a particular congressional election that was not in either Illinois or a surrounding state,” Moffett explained. “Ultimately, they had to figure out who they thought was going to win and why.”
“Students have been intensely interested and active on congressional activities,” he added. “We’ve had students working on a variety of campaigns.”
Moffett noted that current results seem to indicate that there will still be a Democratic majority in the House, but it will be a smaller majority than exists today. As for the Senate, it looks as if Republicans will retain control, albeit with a smaller majority than they have currently.
“When parties have smaller majorities, there is more riding on potential losses,” Moffett explained. “It can also mean a bit of instability in American politics, because you go one election to the next. And, if the majority changes sides, all of a sudden you can have quite different policy outcomes happen quickly.”
Moffett anticipates the nation will have more definitive answers by the end of the week, with a final five or so states currently finalizing results that will ultimately determine who is president. Regardless of outcomes, Rice and Moffett note this election cycle saw strong voter turnout and a demonstrated interest in democracy.
“There are lots of paths for both candidates right now, and it’s important that we be patient and let the process work itself out, and let the votes continue to be counted,” Rice said. “We’re seeing how much elections matter. Voters are recognizing this in ways that they haven’t in the past. We see an upsurge in young people who are passionate about politics expressing their voice. That is good for the long-term health of our democracy.”
Moffett and Rice are also continuing their data collection efforts surrounding voting habits. On Wednesday, they distributed two surveys, one to SIUE undergraduates and another to 18-24-year-olds nationwide, asking about civic activities, Black Lives Matter, the Coronavirus response and other relevant questions that will help formulate their research initiatives moving forward.
Photo: (L-R) SIUE Political Science Experts Laurie Rice, PhD, and Ken Moffett, PhD.
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfyOL-DT6MQ&feature=youtu.be
